A November to remember: markets hitting fresh highs — Market Insights (November 2023)

Global markets rallied and had its best month in 3 years

November shaped up to be a strong month with both the equity and fixed income markets enjoying a strong rebound after an underwhelming September and October. 

In fact, November 2023 was the best month for both equities and bonds in the past 3 years. The MSCI ACWI was up about 9.2% (in USD terms) while the Bloomberg Global Aggregate climbed 3.4% (hedged, USD).

Looking back into the month, value stocks generally underperformed growth stocks, while global small cap stocks eked out a marginal gain over large cap stocks. Small caps in EM, bucked the trend, outpacing their large cap peers by about 1.6%.

The bond markets similarly displayed robust performance as yields declined. Bonds with longer maturities surpassed those with shorter maturities in terms of performance, and taking on credit risk proved advantageous during the period.

Inflation cools and central banks are taking a pause on rate hikes 

The macro backdrop supporting the strong rally in markets can be distilled into three key components.

1. Central banks (US and Eurozone) pausing on further rate hikes
2. Declining core and headline inflation across the major economies
3. The U.S. October Jobs report released in November indicated a slowdown in the pace of hiring and unemployment rate ticked up slightly to 3.9% from 3.8% in September

All three components signalled that the rate hikes are working their way into the economies and that inflation might have finally peaked. Economic growth also seems to be slowing, which led market participants to speculate that interest rate cuts may be coming sooner rather than later.

Looking forward — has the Fed pivot finally arrived?

The December 13 Fed meeting further bolstered positive market sentiment when they decided to keep rates steady for the third time, at a range of 5.25 to 5.5%. Further exuberance ensued with FOMC forecasts that call for potentially 3 rate cuts of 0.25% each in 2024.

Although Powell cautioned that further rate hikes could still remain a possibility, but markets rallied immediately as the tone from the Fed was more “dovish” and many in the markets are predicting the hiking cycle has finally come to an end, with potential rate cuts in sight for 2024. 

The full Fed statement can be found here.

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Building a long-term resilient portfolio with Endowus Hong Kong

The strong market rally in November caught many by surprise, after a dismal consecutive two months in September and October. It is therefore almost impossible to predict exactly how macro events would play out, even for many market strategists. 

However, spreading your investments across asset classes and geographies will help with diversifying your risk. Dollar-cost averaging or DCA, the practice of investing a fixed dollar amount on a regular basis could also be a strategy that helps remove any emotional connection you have, minimises timing risk and you are are less likely to make impulsive, speculative decisions.

With the digital wealth platform Endowus, you can plan and manage your money — by investing in Best-In-Class Funds and globally diversified, low-cost model portfolios seamlessly.

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Read more:

• Introducing Endowus model portfolios — curated with Best-In-Class Funds for core-satellite strategies
• Why invest through Endowus
• Choosing Endowus when investing in Hong Kong
• Why invest in stocks when I can get 5% “guaranteed”?

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Risk Warnings

Investment involves risk. Past performance is not an indicator nor a guarantee of future performance. The value of investments and the income from them can go down as well as up, and you may not get the full amount you invested. 

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