- Long-term investors should understand market volatility and not fear downturns.
- Historically, an exposure to globally diversified equity markets has always recovered, demonstrating the importance of patience and a strategic approach to investing.
- Bear markets are shorter-lived than bull markets. Loss aversion might amplify the actual pain versus its impact.
- Understanding the pattern of drawdowns and recoveries helps investors make rational decisions.
Tariffs and their potential consequences on global economics and trade triggered a stock market pullback. As of 22 Apr, the S&P 500 Index has tanked more than 15% from its peak achieved in mid-February. Fears spilt over from Wall Street to the rest of the world. World equities also retreated about 10% during the same period.
Markets are flirting with entering bear market territory, but this is hardly the whole picture of how the machinery works. We analyse the data of past drawdowns, their time to recover, and returns after the fall. The pain of loss is real, but history tells us that there is a lot to gain from situations like this as well.
How common are corrections of 10% or more?
Since 1970, there have been 19 instances where the S&P 500 Index has dropped by more than 10%, 12 instances of drops of more than 15%, 16 instances of drops of more than 20%, and four instances of drops of more than 30%.
For global markets, the situation is similar: 17, 12, seven, and four instances of drops more than 10%, 15%, 20% and 30% respectively.
The table below shows the time to recover to previous highs from these drops. Interestingly, the speed of recovery has become faster in recent history, perhaps with increased information transparency and access to markets.