India: A micro and macro anchor amid global uncertainty
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India: A micro and macro anchor amid global uncertainty

Updated
24
Nov 2022
published
7
Oct 2022
India equities and economy - companies and banks - PineBridge Investments

Our thoughts:

Barring major unforeseen hurdles, India appears positioned for sustainable growth. All told, investors could consider allocating capital to India, especially to companies with the potential to capture a significant portion of the expected growth. 

Like other major economies, India has endured its fair share of headwinds over the last two years, including an extended shutdown in 2020 and a severe wave of Covid-19 in 2021. 

This year, however, amid skyrocketing commodity prices, India — once thought to be vulnerable to such external shocks — has surprised investors with its resilience.

Recall that India was categorised as a member of the “fragile five” countries in 2013. Less than a decade later, amid unprecedented global challenges, India has proved itself to be anything but — and shown why it was wrong to include the country in that grouping.

The macro headwinds India has been facing seem to be receding. The fall in prices of global commodities, especially those that India imports, has brought inflation down from its highs earlier this year. 

This should reduce the possibility of further increases in interest rates and keep the cost of capital reasonable. 

Companies have not seen significant destruction in demand due to high inflation, as they were able to absorb part of it through excess production capacity while also benefitting from operating leverage.

Companies also have robust balance sheets, with low debt-to-equity levels. Bank balance sheets, in particular, have seen a cleanup of past bad loans, resulting in one of the healthiest net non-performing asset (NNPA) ratios in a long time. 

As demand grows, we expect banks to continue to lend, and companies to willingly borrow, given the very low balance-sheet risk for both parties. 

We are also watching frequent corporate announcements of plans to augment capacity to meet future demand.

Listed private manufacturing companies have low leverage

Source: Reserve Bank of India, July 2022. Data is based on 1,569 common listed private manufacturing companies.

Banks’ net non-performing asset (NNPA) ratios have mostly fallen

Source: Reserve Bank of India, July 2022. PSBs refer to public sector banks, PVBs refer to private sector banks, FBs refer to foreign banks, and SCBs refer to scheduled commercial banks.

This change in both the macro outlook and micro factors has caused foreign investors to turn positive on India. After a period of constant foreign outflows, flows turned net positive in July. 

We are also seeing signs of a revival in initial public offerings and successful secondary market equity capital-raising.

Valuations have come off since their peaks last year and are more reasonable, albeit they do factor in earnings growth. 

Barring major unforeseen hurdles, India appears positioned for sustainable growth. All told, we believe investors should consider allocating capital to India, especially to companies with the potential to capture a significant portion of the expected growth.

Read more: India equities glimmer against a resilient, rising economy

This article was originally published by PineBridge Investments on 14 Sept 2022.

PineBridge Investments is a global asset manager focused on active, high-conviction investing. As of 30 June 2022, the firm managed US$141.1 billion across global asset classes for sophisticated investors around the world. 

Endowus has three funds from PineBridge (as of 3 Oct 2022), namely the India Equity Fund, the Asia ex Japan Small Cap Equity Fund, and the US Large Cap Research Enhanced Fund.

Get started building your own portfolio with these funds on the Endowus Fund Smart platform.

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Investing involves risk, including possible loss of principal. The information presented herein is for illustrative purposes only and should not be considered reflective of any particular security, strategy, or investment product. It represents a general assessment of the markets at a specific time and is not a guarantee of future performance results or market movement. This material does not constitute investment, financial, legal, tax, or other advice; investment research or a product of any research department; an offer to sell, or the solicitation of an offer to purchase any security or interest in a fund; or a recommendation for any investment product or strategy. PineBridge Investments is not soliciting or recommending any action based on information in this document. Any opinions, projections, or forward-looking statements expressed herein are solely those of the author, may differ from the views or opinions expressed by other areas of PineBridge Investments, and are only for general informational purposes as of the date indicated. Views may be based on third-party data that has not been independently verified. PineBridge Investments does not approve of or endorse any republication of this material. You are solely responsible for deciding whether any investment product or strategy is appropriate for you based upon your investment goals, financial situation and tolerance for risk.

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